Market context
Why facilities across Africa and the Middle East are reassessing their energy supply
Fuel prices, grid reliability and regulation have all moved materially in 2026, and differently in each market. Each change alters both the economics of a project and the route to its approval.
The case in two charts
Diesel generatorOn-site solar
Barouk Energy estimate. Diesel: pump price in September 2026, 0.27 litres per kWh plus 10% for generator maintenance. Solar: USD 1,000 per kWp installed, USD 15 per kWp a year to operate, 20 years at a 10% cost of capital, average yield of the cities in the estimator.
Fixed-tilt output, average of the cities in the estimator, compared with Madrid and Berlin. Source: Global Solar Atlas (World Bank, Solargis).
| Country | Diesel generator | On-site solar | kWh per kWp per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | US$0.50 | US$0.08 | 1,813 |
| Lebanon | US$0.45 | US$0.08 | 1,747 |
| Nigeria | US$0.45 | US$0.09 | 1,510 |
| United Arab Emirates | US$0.39 | US$0.08 | 1,792 |
| Oman | US$0.20 | US$0.08 | 1,807 |
| Saudi Arabia | US$0.14 | US$0.08 | 1,821 |
| Egypt | US$0.12 | US$0.08 | 1,832 |
Why now
The installed cost of utility-scale solar has fallen 88% since 2010, and battery pack prices 87% since 2013.
Sources: IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025 (global weighted average for utility-scale projects); BloombergNEF, 2025 Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (volume-weighted average pack price). Pack prices are not the installed cost of a storage system.
Nigeria
- 70.7%
- Share of Nigerian firms that own or share a generator. African Development Bank, African Economic Outlook 2026
- ₦3,277
- Average retail price of diesel per litre in May 2026, 86% higher than a year earlier. Prices have since eased but remain volatile. National Bureau of Statistics, Diesel Price Watch
3 more
- 31%
- Average availability of grid generation plant reported for April 2026. NERC operational factsheet
- 10 April 2026
- Mini-Grid Regulations 2026 published, raising the size limit for isolated mini-grids to 5 MW and for interconnected mini-grids to 10 MW. NERC-R-001-2026
- 3 June 2026
- Net Billing Regulations 2026 published, allowing solar installations of 50 kWp to 1.5 MWp to export surplus energy for bill credits. NERC-R-002-2026
Morocco
- 9 June 2026
- Decree 2.25.100 implementing Law 82-21 on electricity self-production entered into force, three months after its publication on 9 March 2026. Bulletin Officiel No. 7489
- 20%
- Maximum share of annual production that self-producers may sell to the grid operator as surplus, under Article 12 of Law 82-21. The surplus tariff set by ANRE, 18 cDH/kWh off-peak and 21 cDH/kWh at peak, covers medium, high and very high voltage connections only. ANRE, Decision No. 04/26
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- 3,886 MW
- Renewable hosting capacity ANRE set for 2026 across all projects under Laws 13-09 and 82-21 (1,088 MW wind, 2,798 MW solar). It rises to 10,429 MW by 2030. ANRE, Decision No. 01/26
- 16.10 DH/L
- Indicative diesel pump price from 1 October 2026, up 0.80 DH per litre on the previous revision. Atlasinfo, October 2026
Egypt
- EGP 20.50/L
- Official diesel price since 10 March 2026, up from EGP 17.50. The pricing committee reviews prices quarterly. Ahram Online, March 2026
- 255 pt/kWh
- Electricity tariff from April 2026 for medium-voltage users, against 274 piastres for low-voltage commercial users. Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency
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- 30 MW
- Maximum size of a solar self-consumption or net-metering plant, which may not exceed the site's annual demand. EgyptERA rules, summarised by Riad & Riad
Lebanon
- About 4 hours
- Daily supply from Électricité du Liban in July 2026, down from seven to nine hours in February. Private generators cover the rest. Libnanews, September 2026
- Law 318/2023
- Distributed renewable energy law allowing net metering over 12-month cycles and private systems of up to 10 MW, including sales to adjacent users. Lebanese Center for Policy Studies
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- USD 1,003/kWp
- Average turnkey price of solar PV in 2023, down 86% since 2011. LCEC, Solar PV Status Report 2023
Saudi Arabia
- SAR 1.79/L
- Diesel price from 1 January 2026, up 7.8% under the annual price review. Okaz, January 2026
- About 50% by 2030
- National Renewable Energy Program target for gas and renewables in the power mix, including 40 GW of solar PV. CMS Expert Guide to Renewable Energy
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- 1 kW to 2 MW
- Size range of grid-connected rooftop systems allowed under the small-scale solar framework, with monthly net billing. CMS Expert Guide to Renewable Energy
United Arab Emirates
- AED 4.80/L
- Retail diesel price for October 2026, up from AED 4.30 in September. Prices are revised monthly. Khaleej Times, September 2026
- 725 MW
- Rooftop solar connected under the Shams Dubai net-metering programme across 8,430 buildings by June 2025. SolarQuarter, June 2025
Oman
- OMR 0.258/L
- Retail diesel price in October 2026. Fuel prices are subsidised by the government and kept below international levels. DailyFuels, October 2026
- 6 GW
- Utility-scale solar planned in six projects of about 1,000 MW each, due to start operating in 2030 and 2031. Nama PWP, the single buyer of electricity, runs the procurement. SolarQuarter, January 2026
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- 30 to 40% by 2030
- Expected share of renewables in electricity generation, rising to about 60 to 70% by 2040, on the way to net-zero emissions by 2050. SolarQuarter, January 2026
- Royal Decree 78/2004
- Sector law under which anyone generating or supplying electricity, including from solar, needs a licence or a licence exemption from the regulator, the Authority for Public Services Regulation. CMS Expert Guide to Renewable Energy
Figures as reported at the dates shown. Sources are linked.